Posted by: ND | October 30, 2008

A New Secret Weapon

During yesterday evening’s match against Wallasey I unveiled a new secret weapon, some Peltor ear defenders. Naturally this caused some amusement (mainly amongst my own team) but I had my reasons. The Widnes venue features a very loud fan heater which is just over my board. I lost two games at home last season, but rather than make excuses it’s better just to do something about it.

Getting rid of excuses is, I believe, a healthy practice. Excuses paint you into a corner of inactivity whereby everything has a drawback. So it’s better to identify any problems and do something about them, even if this risks ridicule by being out of step. By the way, I’ve found that ear defenders are great at children’s parties too, though here it may be better still to have noise cancelling headphones and some relaxing music. It’s little wonder that most parents seem to be stressed a lot of the time; noise is known to be a factor, as is a lack of sleep!

Does this mean I’m equipped to hit the tournament circuit again? Certainly not for the next decade or so, and even then it’s more likely to be holiday tournaments in Spain or Italy. Instead I’m looking into reviving my trading career.

There were a number of things that caused me to stop last year, not least of which was the pressure of making junior’s rice pudding or picking him up from school whilst my positions were fluctuating wildly. But the last few months have shown investing is not an entirely stress free activity either, and I ended up trading my investments, despite the transaction costs involved. It has helped me escape the worst, but then the thought did occur to me that I should have been trading instead of investing in the first place.

Trading seriously means a big change in lifestyle, essentially it’s a 24 hour a day activity. Even if someone is flat they’ll still be thinking about markets on some level. Not to do so means getting out of touch.

What is required is an edge, a plan and lots of failsafes. A stats based approach supplies an edge, though it needs good data and a lot of study. I figure I can get round the school runs with a Blackberry which has a live feed and trading platform, and probably I should be looking to place orders at times that I’m not on rice pudding duty. And the ear defenders should come in handy too, I live on a busy street.


Responses

  1. Nigel,

    First of all, what exactly is an ear defender….I have no clue?

    What trading platform works best on a Blackberry?

    If you need data for the grains, I have tick by tick data for the last 100 years for corn and wheat. I’ve been running a lot of tests on the data as of late, varying times, samples, etc, and the only thing I’ve realized is more confusion. The grain markets, my markets, have me so confused.

    Jeff

  2. Jeff,

    These look like the ones I’ve got, a nice bright yellow:

    http://snipurl.com/4v9ck [www_peltor_se]

    I’ve got accounts with several spread betting companies here, which offer a trading platform for mobile devices. I got the Blackberry yesterday but haven’t managed to set up the platforms yet. Looks like I need to phone support to get the gprs settings right.

    I wouldn’t have a clue where to start with the grains, but thanks for the offer. I might try looking at them with daily data but I was thinking to prioritise stocks and bonds where at least I have some experience. One thing about tick data that Dr. N advised me about was that there was too much randomness. As far as I’m aware he uses nothing smaller than 30 minute chunks, and tends to use larger segments of the day than that.

    Nigel

  3. Nigel,

    I break grain data into 15 minute chunks for my purposes.

    However, I’m of the feeling that there can never be too much data. One might not use it right away, but it’s there for future use if needed.

    One of the most successful wheat traders I know just uses daily volume, opening and closing prices. He has a system that works with just those three variables. I don’t know what he does, but he only trades opens and closes. He seems to be in the right place at the right time, so he must be doing something right.

    Also, what’s a good site for playing chess online with other people?

    Jeff

  4. Jeff,

    There are several popular sites for playing online, for example:

    http://www.playchess.com/
    http://www.chessclub.com/

    Having said that I rarely play online myself and tend to advise students to cut down or give up altogether. The big problem is that everyone plays at very fast time limits in which speed is more important than accuracy or depth. I think this cultivates poor habits.

    Every considered just playing in a tournament or finding a club? I quite like the company of chess players and they remind me of traders. There’s the same kind of mentality, just without any money!

    Nigel

  5. Nigel,
    I’m not a great chess player, and have many bad habits, but have an OK street game. Here in my town, there’s no chess club except for the 85 year old senior citizen retirement circuit. I played with some of those old codgers a few years ago and found it rather depressing.

  6. Jeff,

    You might want to check out the offerings on the Florida Chess Association site.

    Nigel

    http://www.floridachess.org/


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